2024 Year-End Canadian Luxury Market Report

Amid a challenging economic landscape, Canada’s metro markets have demonstrated remarkable resilience and continued growth.

• In Halifax, the premium detached market tightens as $1 million to $1.99 million new listings plunge 51% in 2024, from 153 in Q2 to 75 in Q4.

• In Montréal, a 32% new listing plunge shields $1 million to $3.99 million range from price correction as $1.5 million average price level holds.

• In Ottawa, properties priced between $1 million and $1.99 million account for 10% of all real estate transactions in 2024.

• In Toronto, luxury real estate defies rate and market pressures as $10 million sales triple in 2024’s second half.

• In Vancouver, $2 million to $3.99 million detached homes demonstrate the most resilience with fluctuations under 5% in 2024.

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MARKETS AT A GLANCE 

HALIFAX 

Halifax's premium detached market tightens as $1 million to $1.99 million new listings plunge 51% in 2024, from 153 in Q2 to 75 in Q4.

Halifax’s real estate market in 2024 was shaped by cautious buyer sentiment, with many adopting a "wait-and-see" approach due to high interest rates. Despite this, migration and government policy changes maintained housing demand, although tight inventory continued to elevate prices.

The luxury market slowed significantly but began recovering after two consecutive interest rate cuts late in the year. The $1 million to $2 million range stood out as the most active segment, offering buyers a balance of value and premium features, with stable average sold prices between $1.18 million and $1.32 million.

““Halifax’s real estate market remains resilient, with strong demand for $1 million to $2 million properties offering magnificence, comfort, and value. With interest rate cuts expected and growing demand for waterfront and suburban homes, 2025 presents opportunities for buyers and sellers alike.”

- Donna Harding, License Partner, Engel & Völkers Nova Scotia

Looking ahead, Engel & Völkers projects a 3% price increase for properties over $1 million in the first half of 2025. Demand for waterfront and suburban homes is expected to drive activity as buyers seek lifestyle investments.

MONTRÉAL

Montreal’s 32% new listing plunge shields $1 million to $3.99 million range from price correction as $1.5 million average price level holds.

Montréal’s real estate market in late 2024 reflected cautious optimism, as two interest rate cuts sparked some activity but buyers maintained a "wait-and-see" attitude . Despite this, the city remained a desirable long-term investment hub, with limited luxury detached inventory and steady demand for key neighborhoods like Outremont, Westmount, and the Golden Square Mile.

The $4 million-plus segment saw significant price fluctuations, driven by fewer high-value sales, while the $1 million to $3.99 million range experienced gradual price growth, illustrating consistent demand for premium, move-in-ready homes. October 2024 marked a $1.08 billion sales volume across all price points — a 60% year-over-year increase — highlighting renewed confidence in the market. By November, falling interest rates and government initiatives encouraged buyers to reenter, boosting transactions, while December’s activity exceeded expectations, reflecting growing buyer confidence.

“Montréal continues to define luxury living with its blend of architectural beauty, vibrant culture, and unrivaled lifestyle. With anticipated market growth and the enduring appeal of its premier neighbourhoods, 2025 promises to be interesting for buyers and sellers alike.”

- Patrice Groleau, License Partner, Engel & Völkers Montréal

Looking ahead to 2025, Engel & Völkers projects a 5% price increase for properties over $1 million in the first half of the year. The $1 million to $2 million range is poised to lead the market, offering a balance of value and luxury. Sellers in entry-level luxury segments should strategize carefully, as rising mortgage renewal rates could prompt more listings, potentially outpacing buyer demand.

Ottawa

Properties priced between $1 million and $1.99 million account for 9% of all real estate transactions in 2024.

In the second half of 2024, Ottawa's real estate market showed signs of recovery, with inventory stabilizing at 2.8 months of supply by October. Residential prices remained steady, with properties between $1 million and $1.99 million peaking at an average of $1.27 million in September. Year-to-date sales totaled 11,662 units, a 9.4% increase over 2023, reflecting strong fall market performance despite buyer caution and longer listing times.

The luxury market remained selective, with the $2 million to $3.99 million range seeing 256 new listings but only 69 sales. In the ultra-luxury segment, just 24 new listings were recorded, with three sales and a top sale price of $5 million. The $1 million to $1.99 million segment dominated, accounting for 9% of all transactions, with buyers favoring walkable neighborhoods like Westboro-McKellar Park and The Glebe.

“Prices in Ottawa rarely experience dramatic swings, making this market an excellent choice for long-term stability. We expect gradual growth and a solid start to 2025, with sales volume continuing to build.”

- John King, License Partner, Engel & Völkers Ottawa Central

Looking ahead, Ottawa’s market is expected to see gradual growth with a projected 5% price increase for properties over $1 million in the first half of 2025. While the luxury segment remains a buyer’s market, overall market conditions are shifting towards favoring sellers. Developers face challenges, but zoning changes may increase supply and reshape the market. Ottawa's strong economy and transit expansion are expected to drive further demand.

TORONTO

Luxury real estate defies rate and market pressures as Toronto’s $10 million sales triple in 2024’s second half.

In 2024, Toronto's real estate market experienced fluctuations shaped by evolving buyer preferences, policy changes, and economic conditions. Early-year activity was slow as buyers awaited further interest rate cuts, despite stable prices. By October, momentum picked up, fueled by the Bank of Canada’s rate reductions and a CMHC policy increasing the insured mortgage cap to $1.5 million, making homeownership more accessible.

Sales in the $1 million to $2 million range were strong, underscoring the market's resilience, while the condo market faced challenges from oversupply and misaligned pricing, with resale condos outperforming new builds in value and demand.

The luxury market thrived, unaffected by interest rate changes, with notable growth in the $6 million-plus and $10 million-plus segments, driven by demand for ultra-luxury detached homes. Conventional housing markets saw seasonal activity spikes in September and October, followed by a quieter December. Engel & Völkers Toronto Central recommends listing in mid-January 2025 to avoid spring’s heightened competition.

“If you plan to sell in early 2025, Engel & Völkers Toronto Central recommends listing mid-January. Spring often brings more competition with similar homes in your neighbourhood, while mid-January typically has fewer listings, potentially leading to a higher sale price. This strategy has proven successful in past years.”

- Anita Springate-Renaud, License Partner, Engel & Völkers Toronto Central

Looking ahead, Toronto's real estate market is poised for a dynamic start to 2025. Declining interest rates and favorable policies, such as the increased insured mortgage cap, are expected to draw more buyers into the market. This influx of activity is anticipated to coincide with an increase in new listings by late January, potentially creating an initial surge in inventory.

While this may temporarily moderate price growth, Engel & Völkers Canada predicts a 3% price increase for residential properties over $1 million in the first half of the year. With heightened competition anticipated across detached homes, freehold properties, and select condo segments, savvy buyers and sellers will need to act strategically to navigate the evolving landscape.

VANCOUVER

In 2024, $2 million to $3.99 million detached homes demonstrate the most resilience with fluctuations under 5%.

The Vancouver real estate market in 2024 showed cautious optimism. Listings increased, surpassing the 10-year average, particularly after interest rate drops reignited buyer activity.

The market remained dominated by detached homes, with high demand in the $1 million to $1.99 million range, where prices stayed steady between $1.53 million and $1.59 million. The $2 million to $3.99 million range saw strong sales, especially for detached homes, while the ultra-luxury market above $4 million remained quiet, with limited activity and high price variability.

Seasonality played a key role, with peak activity in spring and slowdowns during summer, followed by a fall recovery. The mid-luxury market showed resilience, while the ultra-luxury segment faced challenges. Prices have remained stable for two years, and Engel & Völkers Vancouver predicts slight increases by year-end 2025.

“The Vancouver luxury market shows strong demand for detached homes, steady mid-luxury activity, and spring peaks, reflecting its resilience. Prices have remained stable for two years, and Engel & Völkers Vancouver predicts continued stability with slight increases, potentially nearing 2022’s pricing high by year-end.”

- Andrew Carros, Chief Operating Officer, Engel & Völkers Vancouver

Looking ahead, Vancouver's market is expected to remain balanced, with opportunities for buyers and sellers who act strategically. A 2.5% price increase is anticipated for properties over $1 million in the first half of 2025, and while rental affordability remains a challenge, the overall outlook suggests continued stability with opportunities for informed decision-making.