2024 Mid-Year Canadian Luxury Real Estate Market Report

Overview

Engel & Völkers reports Canada’s premium metro markets, in Halifax, Ottawa, Toronto and Vancouver, are making gains and defying market expectations. Misconceptions about The Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act of January 1, 2023, known as “Canada's foreign buyer ban”, are affecting the country's welcoming image and disrupting condo market dynamics, especially in the new construction sector. Meanwhile, the Canadian real estate market is seeing a decline in domestic investors, and condos face sluggish sales as buyers await rate relief.

On June 5, 2024, the Bank of Canada made its first rate cut of 25 basis points since April 2022, a significant event in the market. Home prices remained steady, with slight increases for many properties, indicating a more balanced market. There was renewed optimism in the market, however, many buyers continued to wait, feeling it was too early to commit.

As we enter the second half of 2024, these are the top national trends affecting Canada’s premium housing markets.

The luxury real estate market shows movement in Canada's major cities.

• In Halifax: There was a 5% increase in units sold priced over $1 million in the first half of 2024 compared to last year.

• In Ottawa: From January to June, home prices grew 8% for residential homes priced between $1 - 1.99 million. 

• In Toronto: From January to June 2024, the value of homes priced at $8 million and higher grew by 4.73% compared to last year. 

• In Vancouver: Despite more listings and fewer units sold, the average sales price of $2 - 3.99 million residential homes grew by 4.72% from January to June

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Markets at a Glance


HALIFAX

Halifax saw a 5% increase in units sold priced over $1 million in the first half of 2024 compared to last year.

Welcome to Halifax

The Halifax market showed brisk activity from January to March, before contracting in April 2024. During the period, homes inside the core and around the Halifax Peninsula sold quickly, in multiple offers, especially homes under $700,000. Sales outside the city core were slow-paced, particularly homes over $1 million. 

Contrary to other metropolitan markets in Canada, January 2024 started in a seller’s market position. Buyer demand was there, while inventory was not increasing. In April, Halifax’s market was still considered a seller’s market, however home sales stalled. Buyers stood aside, waiting for the interest rate to drop, but the number of listings rose. June’s interest rate drop of 25 basis points introduced new confidence to the market, but the market conditions did not change in any marked way compared to the previous months.

Engel & Völkers is reporting that the downturn in Ontario and British Columbia is affecting Halifax luxury real estate.The Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act, has affected the market above $1 million in Halifax.


“The foreign buyer ban has greatly impacted Halifax’s luxury market, especially condos and HRM waterfront properties. There is a misperception by buyers outside of Canada that it applies to the entire country rather than Census Metropolitan Areas and Census Agglomerations.”

-Donna Harding, License Partner, Engel & Völkers Nova Scotia

Market Outlook

Engel & Völkers Canada predicts Halifax homes over $1 million will see a 6% price increase by year-end. Due to the extreme lack of supply, Downtown Halifax continues to be considered a seller’s market. Buyers and sellers coming to Halifax from out of province should know that their budgets may not suffice to get them what they expect.

OTTAWA

From January to June, home prices in Ottawa grew 8% for residential homes priced between $1 - 1.99 million. 

Welcome to Ottawa

In the first half of 2024, transactions moved through the Ottawa market at a lethargic pace. Home prices in Ottawa grew 8% for residential homes priced between $1 - 1.99 million, and remained relatively flat year-over-year in the conventional market. This is a remarkable outcome considering the downturn in the number of units sold since 2022. 

Ottawa's real estate market continued its ascent in April 2024, with home sales and prices rising, signalling heightened confidence among buyers and sellers. The $2 million and higher luxury price point saw more new listings than in previous years, and Engel & Völkers reports that a larger pool of affluent buyers is driving the demand as they seek out neighbourhood lifestyles with walkability as opposed to privacy. 

Overall, Ottawa saw more transactions falling through compared to previous years. Buyers took a very cautious tone, often walking away due to discrepancies in the inspection or disagreement on price. In June, the Bank of Canada announced an interest rate drop of 25 basis points. While some buyer optimism returned, this was not reflected in market activity. 

“We advise buyers with mortgage approvals at current interest rates to lock in a home price now and ride the rates down. At current inventory levels, qualified buyers have more choice and power. For sellers, correctly priced homes still sell in a timely manner, but they meet real-time market conditions.”

-John King, License Partner, Engel & Völkers Ottawa

Market Outlook

Engel & Völkers predicts that Ottawa residential and condominium properties worth over $1 million will see a 5% price increase by year-end. Ottawa’s market is leaning towards buyers, but it is not a buyer's market. A balanced market is four months of inventory, and Ottawa’s currently hovers around 2.5 months across all price points. This low inventory and interest rate decrease is why Engel & Völkers anticipates prices will remain fairly stable with a slight upward tick.

TORONTO

From January to June 2024, the value of homes priced at $8 million and higher grew by 4.73% compared to last year. 

Welcome to Toronto

In 2024, the Toronto real estate market for homes priced at $1 million and higher has shown stability and consistency, with seasonal increases in new listings and sales. Most notably, the 416 area code saw the value of detached homes $8 million and higher increase by 4.72%  from January to June, compared to last year. Impressively, 45% of these homes sold within 10 days, with an average selling price of $10,602,222.  

The year started positively, as January real estate sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) saw both month-over-month and year-over-year increases, following the GTA's lowest annual sales in 23 years in 2023. Multiple offers were common for homes in good locations that were priced correctly, and homes in less desirable locations were sold but needed to be marketed and priced smartly. Condo inventory tended to remain on the market for longer. As buying power grew due to a lack of competition, many prioritized buying a house over a condo, avoiding costly land transfer taxes and other expenses associated with living in a condo.

“Once competition for detached homes returns, and buyers are squeezed out of this part of the market, they will return to buying condos. Qualified buyers should seize the moment and leverage their strong negotiation position, locking in a property price on the cusp of interest rates heading south.”

-Anita Springate-Renaud, License Partner, Engel & Völkers Toronto Central

"Despite the foreign buyer ban, the Toronto real estate market demonstrates strong long-term demand and resilience, particularly in the key downtown core areas."

-Patrice Groleau, License Partner, Engel & Völkers Toronto City

Market Outlook

Engel & Völkers Canada predicts Toronto residential homes over $1 million will see a 5% price increase by year-end. Engel & Völkers recommends sellers prepare now to list this fall, aligning their timing with the anticipated rate cut. Once buyers begin getting priced out of the residential home market, they will not be able to compete, and consumer demand for condos will return. 

VANCOUVER

Despite more listings and fewer units sold, the average sales price of $2 - 3.99 million residential homes grew by 4.72% from January to June.

Welcome to Vancouver

The significant increase in borrowing costs in 2023 led many forecasters to speculate prices would decline during the year, but this did not materialize in Vancouver in the first half of 2024. From January to June, prices for homes above $1 million remained remarkably stable, despite the sluggish market. This can be attributed to seller behaviour in Vancouver, which typically sees sellers refrain from listing homes during times of uncertainty. This results in the availability of resale homes becoming too low, however, prices remained stable. 

The Canadian government has removed many incentives from the market, creating conditions unfavourable to investors and a lack of drive in price appreciation. Due to the restrictions, many potential investors who typically met the demand for rentals are now out of the market. As a result, there is a lot of pressure on the low end of the market in leasing, and the cost of rent continues to climb disproportionately due to a shortage of rental units on the market. 

“The recent zoning changes in Vancouver have opened up substantial areas for development. Despite this, several economic challenges are deterring developers from capitalizing on these opportunities, including  permits, timelines, property values and the economy.”

-Andrew Carros, Chief Operating Officer, Engel & Völkers Vancouver

Market Outlook

Engel & Völkers Canada predicts Vancouver residential and condominium properties worth over $1 million will see a 4% price increase by year-end. Prices have not dropped in the past two years, and Engel & Völkers observes they're unlikely to fall in the next six months. With interest rates dropping incrementally, price increases are on the horizon. 

The 2024 mid-year report reveals a dynamic landscape across Canada’s luxury real estate markets. Despite external factors such as the “foreign buyer ban” and fluctuating interest rates, the demand for luxury properties is promising. Engel & Völkers is optimistic about the remainder of 2024, forecasting continued growth across these key markets. Sellers and buyers alike are advised to stay informed and strategically navigate the evolving market conditions.

To learn more, read the full report here.